Analysts link the move to maintenance works at several refineries and higher global crude prices
Russia is likely to sharply increase oil exports in November, business daily Kommersant reported on Tuesday, citing Kpler analysts.
According to the report, the country’s seaborne shipments are set to surge by some 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month compared to October, reaching up to 3.7 million bpd – the highest levels since May.
Analysts note that the spike in exports is expected to come amid continued maintenance works at several Russian refineries, which forced companies to redirect oil for export.
However, most repairs at refineries are expected to be completed by November 15, which may cause a drop in oil exports from December onward.
Another possible reason for the increase in Russian oil exports is the surge in global crude prices, Kpler experts say. Moscow had been forced to redirect oil shipments to Asian markets amid Western sanctions and a price cap imposed on the country’s crude.
Russia also started to gradually reduce its output in order to adjust to changes and support global prices, which at the time dropped to around $72 per barrel. However, crude prices have since recovered amid reduced supplies from Saudi Arabia and, more recently, the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at roughly $88 per barrel.
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The seasonal drop in domestic demand for fuel, along with Russia’s current restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel, may also create the conditions for the redirection of crude oil for export, analysts predict.
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